The Iraq Invasion is Iran's Golden Goose

The recently released National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), produced by the biggest boffins the Intelligence Community can muster, does not paint a pretty picture of the effects of the surge, nor of the chances of stability or peace coming to Iraq anytime soon. It basically tells us that progress is slow and whilst Iraqi security forces perform 'adequately' and what is really a concern is the capabilities of the Iraqi Government. The NIE does not expect the Iraqi Government to become more effective over the next 12 months, contributing to more sectarian division and violence.

As a sign of how illegitimate this government appears to many Iraqis, the NIE reports that Sunni groups fighting Al Queda in Iraq still refuse to join forces with the government in this struggle. It's a terrible sign when people can't even unite over a common enemy, a basic principle of politics from Machiavelli to Rove.

Beyond the tragedy this spells out for Western troops and Iraqi people, the significance of the quagmire in Iraq extends beyond Iraqi borders. The invasion is a realpolitik disaster for the US- it has provided incredible incentives for neighboring countries to ensure chaos reigns in Iraq and has shifted the regional balance of power irrevocably. Previously, the US could rely on 'moderate' (but corrupt and poorly governed) Sunni allies such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia and Saddam's Iraq, before he became a pariah in the late 80's, to keep the region 'in check'. Now, the US has nicely removed two big threats to Iran, which has always sought to play an increasing role in Muslim countries since the revolution in '79. Radical Sunni Taliban Afghanistan was felled in 2001/2002 and secular, Sunni-led Iraq, arch-enemy of Iran since the vicious war in the 80's, was destroyed in 2003. Now Iraq has been transformed from existential enemy to the biggest opportunity any nation perhaps has ever been handed. Iraq is Iran's golden goose for the forseeable future, allowing it to shore up the power of the clerics, spread its revolutionary message and gain power in an increasingly unstable region.

If you were a nation on the 'axis of evil' list, perhaps next to be invaded, what makes the most sense for you? To make sure the first invasion, which could have been a dry run for an attack on your country, ends in failure. Iran is flooding Iraq with weapons and providing support to disgusting terrorist groups so that it can get ideas of a pre-emptive strike out of the neo-cons' heads. While they're at it, they are leveraging their power across the region by showing they are capable of acting against the strongest nation in the world and influencing a major government in the region.

I can't decide which is more tragic: the undeniably illegal and immoral invasion or the utter failure to do any form of post-invasion planning, thereby making the situation a thousand times worse. The issue of what to do now seems clear. I cannot understand why right-wingers are so committed to nation-building, which should go counter to most of their cherished beliefs. Western troops must be withdrawn, in an orderly way, but as soon as possible. Intense diplomacy needs to be instigatedby the US with Syria and Iran. Massive international support for Iraq needs to be guaranteed. In short, the not very controversial recommendations of the Iraq Study Group report. Where is that document now?

Link to the NIE - http://www.npr.org/documents/2007/aug/20070823_nie.pdf